The House of Representatives is the core of Japan’s political structure. While Japan’s government operates under a bicameral system, the House of Representatives effectively holds decision-making power. In the upcoming House of Representatives election on October 27, 2024, the once-dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) faces a pivotal challenge to its hold on power, raising widespread uncertainty. Japanese politics has traditionally been described as a “two-party system,” yet in practice, the LDP has consistently maintained an overwhelming majority. A scenario in which the ruling party fails to secure a majority has only occurred twice in Japan’s post-war history. However, the possibility of this outcome now looms, creating a mix of anticipation and apprehension among the public.
Opposition Gains Ground amid Calls for Change
The opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), has emphasized its campaign theme of an imminent “change in administration.” Initially, this slogan seemed out of reach for many, as the LDP’s extensive political network, long-standing foundation, and financial power appeared unshakeable. Yet, in this election, the CDP has gained traction as a voice for the public, with a surge in support. This momentum is largely driven by recent corruption scandals surrounding the LDP, particularly a high-profile scandal this summer involving under-the-table payments, which has provoked widespread public backlash. Many now look to the CDP as a vehicle for change.
Concerns Over the Opposition’s Readiness for Governance
Despite this surge in support, doubts remain as to whether the CDP is prepared to lead the government. While Japan briefly experienced an opposition-led government in 2009, the Democratic Party of Japan’s administration was unstable and left a lasting impression of inadequacy on the electorate. With international tensions high, including strained U.S.-China relations and the ongoing Ukraine crisis, questions persist over Japan’s diplomatic stance and whether the CDP can navigate these complex issues effectively.
Particularly in areas such as foreign policy and defense, where careful and consistent direction is crucial, the opposition’s capacity to govern remains uncertain. Likewise, with global economies becoming more interconnected and complex, the CDP’s economic policy vision remains unclear. Though the party resonates with everyday citizens, its ability to steer Japan’s future effectively is yet to be proven.
A Populist Rejection of “Elitism” or a Rash Decision?
This election has been interpreted as a rejection of “elite politics.” Many view the public’s call for change as a reaction to the widening inequality and corruption that have characterized the LDP’s leadership. However, there are concerns about whether voters are making their decisions thoughtfully. Japan’s relatively low level of civic engagement and political education raises doubts about whether voters are truly evaluating policy specifics or simply expressing opposition to the LDP.
This situation mirrors, to some extent, the populist wave that elected Donald Trump in the U.S., where anti-establishment sentiments fueled electoral decisions. Anger over LDP corruption certainly impacts voting choices, but whether this frustration is enough to serve as a basis for shaping Japan’s future remains an open question.
Uncertainty and Hope in Japan’s Political Direction
While it is too soon to predict the election outcome, it seems likely this election could be a defining moment in Japan’s political history. Should the CDP take control, it would mark the end of the LDP’s long-standing dominance and signal a shift toward a new political era. As the “voice of the people,” the CDP is expected to respond to the public’s call for change, yet doubts remain over its ability to deliver on this promise.
Regardless of the outcome, a shift in Japan’s political direction would expose underlying public discontent and scrutiny toward the status quo. This election serves as a reminder of the need for Japanese citizens to develop a deeper understanding of and commitment to the nation’s political process.
